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\u5728\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u53d7\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u662f\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u5728\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u5916\u4ea4\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u9662\uff08Geneva School of Diplomacy and International Relations\uff0cGSD\uff09\u4efb\u804c\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\u3002\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u653b\u51fb\u8005\u6307\u8d23\u8be5\u6821\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u90ca\u5916\u540d\u4e0d\u89c1\u7ecf\u4f20\u7684\u79c1\u7acb\u201c\u91ce\u9e21\u5927\u5b66\u201d\uff0c\u4e14\u6709\u201c\u8e6d\u201d\u540d\u6821\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u9ad8\u7ea7\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u53ca\u53d1\u5c55\u5b66\u9662\uff08Institut de hautes \u00e9tudes internationales et du d\u00e9veloppement\uff0cIHEID\uff09\u7684\u5acc\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u4ee5\u65e5\u6e10\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u529b\uff09\u4e3a\u903b\u8f91\u8d77\u70b9\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u53d6\u5f97\u7a7a\u524d\u7684\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u548c\u6311\u6218\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\u897f\u65b9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8d44\u683c\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u516c\u5f00\u573a\u5408\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6210\u529f\u5450\u558a\u52a9\u5a01\uff0c\u5e76\u501f\u52a9\u5a92\u4f53\u5e73\u53f0\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u7f51\u7b49\u79ef\u6781\u53c2\u4e0e\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e2d\u56fd\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bdd\u8bed\u6743\u5851\u9020\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4ed6\u4e0e\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u7ec8\u7ed3\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u4eba\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u798f\u5c71\uff08Francis Yoshihiro Fukuyama\uff09\u516c\u5f00\u8fa9\u8bba\u201c\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625\u201d\u88ab\u5176\u5f15\u4ee5\u4e3a\u50b2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c31\u5728\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u6b64\u6b21\u4e2d\u5357\u6d77\u6388\u8bfe\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u300a\u4eba\u6c11\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u5176\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u65e0\u6bd4\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e0e\u81ea\u8c6a\u300b\u96c6\u4e2d\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u5176\u601d\u60f3\u3002\u5728\u8be5\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u79f0\uff0c\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5177\u6709\u5386\u53f2\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6210\u529f\u5f70\u663e\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u771f\u7406\u6027\u3002<\/strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u9009\u62e9\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8ba9\u81ea\u8eab\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u2018\u5f53\u60ca\u4e16\u754c\u6b8a\u2019\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5947\u8ff9\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u575a\u6301\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u8272\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u6c11\u6709\u5229\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u7406\u7531\u4e0d\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u7406\u7531\u4e0d\u81ea\u8c6a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u8fd8\u63a5\u53d7\u4eba\u6c11\u7f51\u4e13\u8bbf\uff0c\u79f0\u904f\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u6839\u672c\u884c\u4e0d\u901a\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u53cc\u8d62\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u7528\u201c\u76f8\u4e92\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7e41\u8363\uff08Mutually Assured Prosperity or M.A.P.\uff09\u201d\u6765\u53d6\u4ee3\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u76f8\u4e92\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6bc1\u706d\uff08Mutually Assured Destruction or M.A.D.\uff09\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u903b\u8f91\u4e0e\u5916\u754c\u6316\u6398\u7684\u738b\u6caa\u5b81\u65e9\u671f\u601d\u60f3\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fde\u5b8f\u5927\u7684\u8868\u8fbe\u65b9\u5f0f\u90fd\u5982\u6b64\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e43\u5c14\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u51761991\u5e74\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u53cd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u738b\u6caa\u5b81\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fc7\u5206\u7684\u201c\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u4eab\u4e50\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u88c2\u75d5\u5e76\u524a\u5f31\u5176\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5404\u5f02\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u8bba\u600e\u6837\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u6388\u8bfe\u4e2d\u5357\u6d77\u672c\u8eab\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u4e0b\u5267\u53d8\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u683c\u5c40\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u7684\u786e\u5728\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e08\u201d\u6216\u8005\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u4e2d\u5357\u6d77\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u751a\u81f3\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u6570\u65e5\u524d\uff0c\u8457\u6709\u201c\u601d\u8003\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e09\u90e8\u66f2\u201d\uff08\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u89e6\u52a8\u300b\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u9707\u64bc\u300b\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u300b\uff09\u7684\u201c\u7406\u8bba\u5de6\u6d3e\u201d\u5f20\u7ef4\u4e3a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5357\u6d77\u7684\u201c\u5ea7\u4e0a\u5bbe […]<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/div>\n
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