{"id":5240,"date":"2021-02-09T20:55:40","date_gmt":"2021-02-09T10:55:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.11critic.com\/?p=5240"},"modified":"2021-02-09T20:56:18","modified_gmt":"2021-02-09T10:56:18","slug":"%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e5%b0%8d%e8%8f%af%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%9680%e5%be%8c%e6%99%ba%e5%9b%8a-%e6%9b%be%e5%9c%a8%e5%8c%97%e4%ba%ac%e3%80%8a%e8%b2%a1%e7%b6%93%e3%80%8b%e5%af%a6%e7%bf%92","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11critic.com\/?p=5240","title":{"rendered":"\u62dc\u767b\u5c0d\u83ef\u653f\u7b5680\u5f8c\u667a\u56ca \u66fe\u5728\u300a\u8ca1\u7d93\u300b\u5be6\u7fd2 \u5c0d\u83ef\u653f\u7b56\u300c\u5c11\u5e25\u300d\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u5df2\u8a8d\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u8870\u843d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e2d\u7f8e\u73fe\u4eca\u9032\u5165\u6fc0\u70c8\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e00\u73ed80\u5f8c\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u901a\u300d\u7d1b\u7d1b\u767b\u5834\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u57f7\u653f\u6642\u671f\u6700\u986f\u773c\u7684\u662f\u535a\u660e\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5c0d\u83ef\u5718\u968a\u4e2d\u5247\u662f\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u3002\u9019\u73ed\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u5c0d\u83ef\u667a\u56ca\u6709\u8457\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7279\u9ede\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5747\u901a\u66c9\u4e2d\u6587\uff0c\u66fe\u89aa\u8eab\u5230\u4e2d\u570b\u5de5\u4f5c\u6216\u5be6\u7fd2\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u61f7\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u6212\u5fc3\uff0c\u770b\u5f85\u4e2d\u570b\u66f4\u73fe\u5be6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65b0\u4efb\u767d\u5bae\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4e2d\u570b\u4e8b\u52d9\u4e3b\u4efb\u7684\u6731\u5229\u5b89\u00b7\u683c\u7dad\u8332\uff08Julian Gewirtz\uff09\u6b63\u662f\u65b0\u751f\u4ee3\u4e2d\u570b\u901a\u3001\u9df9\u6d3e\u5916\u4ea4\u667a\u56ca\u3002\u9019\u4f4d2018\u5e74\u624d\u8d70\u51fa\u6821\u9580\u7684\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u64cd\u76e4\u624b\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u5f9e\u5c0f\u5c31\u5b78\u7fd2\u4e2d\u6587\u30022009\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u8d74\u5317\u4eac\u77e5\u540d\u5a92\u9ad4\u4eba\u80e1\u8212\u7acb\u9818\u5c0e\u7684\u300a\u8ca1\u7d93\u300b\u96dc\u8a8c\u793e\u5be6\u7fd2\u3002\u90a3\u6bb5\u7d93\u6b77\u8b93\u4ed6\u898b\u8b49\u904e\u8ffd\u5c0b\u5a92\u9ad4\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7dda\u4e2d\u570b\u8a18\u8005\uff0c\u66f4\u4fc3\u6210\u4ed6\u65e5\u5f8c\u7814\u7a76\u7f8e\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5f80\u4f86\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u8208\u8da3\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\u6731\u5229\u5b89\u00b7\u683c\u7dad\u8332\uff08Julian<\/picture> <\/span>\u25b2 \u6731\u5229\u5b89\u00b7\u683c\u7dad\u8332\uff08Julian Gewirtz\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

2013\u5e74\u5f9e\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u53d6\u5f97\u5b78\u58eb\u5b78\u4f4d\u7684\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u9032\u5165\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b78\u653b\u8b80\u4e2d\u570b\u73fe\u4ee3\u53f2\u535a\u58eb\u5b78\u4f4d\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u77ed\u66ab\u4f11\u5b78\uff0c\u9032\u5165\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u64d4\u4efb\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\u526f\u90e8\u9577\u7684\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u52d9\u7279\u5225\u9867\u554f\u30022018\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ee5\u7f85\u5fb7\u5b78\u8005\u8eab\u4efd\u7372\u5f97\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b78\u4e2d\u570b\u73fe\u4ee3\u53f2\u535a\u58eb\u5b78\u4f4d\u3002\u5728\u7562\u696d\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5206\u6790\u4e8620\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6642\u4efb\u4e2d\u5171\u7e3d\u66f8\u8a18\u8d99\u7d2b\u967d\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b8c\u6210\u535a\u58eb\u5b78\u4f4d\u5f8c\uff0c\u683c\u7dad\u856c\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u5b78\u9662\u6b77\u53f2\u548c\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u5a01\u745f\u6d77\u5fb7\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u52d9\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5b78\u8005\u30022020\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u9032\u5165\u5916\u4ea4\u95dc\u4fc2\u5354\u6703\uff0c\u4efb\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u9ad8\u7d1a\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u3002\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u54e5\u502b\u6bd4\u4e9e\u5927\u5b78\u64d4\u4efb\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u4e16\u754c\u300d\u9805\u76ee\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u548c\u8b1b\u5e2b\u3002<\/p>\n

2017\u5e74\uff0c\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u540d\u70ba\u300a\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34:\u4e2d\u570b\u6539\u9769\u8005\u3001\u897f\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u5168\u7403\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u300b\u3002\u8a72\u66f8\u8b1b\u8ff0\u4e86\u9127\u5c0f\u5e73\u6642\u4ee3\u6539\u9769\u8005\u8207\u5f37\u786c\u6d3e\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u4e4b\u9593\u722d\u596a\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e26\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u540c\u6642\u671f\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u672c\u6709\u95dc\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6ce2\u52d5\u53ca\u5176\u907a\u7522\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u2014\u2014\u300a\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u91cd\u5851\u300b\u4e5f\u5c07\u65bc2021\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9664\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u5916\uff0c\u570b\u5b89\u5718\u968a\u4e2d\u9084\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u5e74\u8f15\u4e2d\u570b\u901a\u675c\u5982\u677e\uff08Rush Doshi\uff09\u3002\u675c\u5982\u677e\u5728\u9032\u5165\u767d\u5bae\u524d\uff0c\u64d4\u4efb\u667a\u5eab\u5e03\u9b6f\u91d1\u65af\u5b78\u6703\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u8a08\u756b\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u675c\u5982\u677e\u5c08\u9577\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u5168\u7403\u5927\u6230\u7565\uff08The CCP’s global grand strategy\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5e0c\u671b\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u6709\u6240\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u570b\u969b\u806f\u76df\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u5c07\u5927\u70ba\u6e1b\u5f31\uff0c\u5efa\u8b70\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u8207\u4e9e\u6d32\u63a5\u89f8\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u675c\u5982\u677e\uff08Rush<\/picture> <\/span>\u25b2 \u675c\u5982\u677e\uff08Rush Doshi\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

\u675c\u5982\u677e\u540c\u6a23\u5177\u6709\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6b77\u30022012\u5e74\uff0c\u675c\u5982\u677e\u4f5c\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u8cc7\u52a9\u7684\u5bcc\u5e03\u8cf4\u7279\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u4e00\u54e1\u5728\u96f2\u5357\u5f85\u4e86\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u4ed6\u6e38\u6b77\u559c\u99ac\u62c9\u96c5\u5c71\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7dec\u3001\u4e2d\u5df4\u3001\u4e2d\u5370\u908a\u754c\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5357\u4e9e\u7684\u64f4\u5f35\u6709\u6df1\u523b\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5373\u5c07\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300a\u9577\u9060\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u53d6\u4ee3\u7f8e\u570b\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5927\u6230\u7565\u300b\uff08The Long Game: China\u2019s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order\uff0c\u66ab\u8b6f\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u675c\u5982\u677e\u5256\u6790\u4e2d\u570b\u4e86\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u7684\u4e09\u6b21\u5916\u4ea4\u6230\u7565\u8f49\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u8001\u4e00\u8f29\u7684\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u901a\u300d\u6307\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5c0d\u83ef\u653f\u7b56\u5718\u968a\u96c6\u5408\u65b0\u751f\u4ee3\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u901a\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u9df9\u6d3e\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u667a\u56ca\u4ee5\u53ca\u66fe\u5617\u8a66\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u63a5\u89f8\u537b\u5927\u5931\u6240\u671b\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u518d\u671f\u671b\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u5f9e\u5167\u90e8\u767c\u751f\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u91cd\u65b0\u5f37\u8abf\u5718\u7d50\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u9054\u6210\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u4e2d\u570b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u5f9e\u62dc\u767b\u7684\u5c0d\u83ef\u667a\u56ca\u5718\u968a\u7684\u7d44\u6210\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u767d\u5bae\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u901a\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u61f7\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u6575\u610f\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6fc0\u70c8\u5c0d\u6297\u4e5f\u66ab\u96e3\u898b\u7de9\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62dc\u767b\u5c0d\u83ef\u653f\u7b56\u300c\u5c11\u5e25\u300d\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u5df2\u8a8d\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u8870\u843d<\/h2>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u62dc\u767b\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u7b56\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5404\u754c\u77da\u76ee\u7126\u9ede\uff0c\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u65b0\u751f\u4ee3\u7684\u767d\u5bae\u5e55\u50da\u3001\u767d\u5bae\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6703\u8b70\u4e2d\u570b\u4e3b\u4efb\u683c\u7dad\u8332\uff08Julian Gewirtz\uff09\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u8b93\u5916\u754c\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u4ed6\u7a0d\u65e9\u524d\u5728\u300a\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52d9\u300b\u96dc\u8a8c\u64b0\u6587\uff0c\u5256\u6790\u7576\u524d\u4e2d\u7f8e\u95dc\u4fc2\u7665\u7d50\uff0c\u76f4\u6307\u4e2d\u570b\u5df2\u8a8d\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u8870\u843d\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u5c0d\u7b56\u662f\u8981\u5c55\u793a\u7f8e\u570b\u4ecd\u7136\u5f37\u5927\u3001\u4f7f\u4e2d\u570b\u77e5\u9053\u932f\u5224\u5f62\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u5728\u62dc\u767b\u7684\u5c0d\u4e2d\u4e8b\u52d9\u5718\u968a\u4e2d\u5c6c\u65bc\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u54e1\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u80fd\u901a\u66c9\u4e2d\u6587\u3002\u4ed6\u7a0d\u65e9\u524d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u984c\u70ba\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u6b63\u8870\u843d\uff0c\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5fc5\u9808\u8b49\u660e\u5317\u4eac\u932f\u4e86\uff08China Thinks America Is Losing Washington Must Show Beijing It\u2019s Wrong\uff09\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u683c\u7dad\u8332\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u4ecd\u5c55\u793a\u81ea\u5df1\u4ecd\u7136\u5f37\u5927<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6b63\u7531\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u9810\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u6b63\u8d70\u5411\u8870\u843d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e2d\u570b\u6562\u65bc\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u3001\u65b0\u7586\u63a1\u3001\u6fb3\u6d32\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u7b49\u554f\u984c\u4e0a\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u59ff\u614b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u4ed6\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4e5f\u76f8\u4fe1\u83ef\u76db\u5d38\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u614b\u52e2\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u52d5\u800c\u6709\u6240\u6539\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u900f\u904e\u300c\u5916\u4ea4\u5b89\u6170\uff08Reassuring\uff09\u300d\u4f86\u8aaa\u670d\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\uff0c\u653e\u68c4\u9019\u4e9b\u4f5c\u6cd5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8981\u505a\u7684\u662f\u5411\u4e2d\u570b\u8b49\u660e\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u4f9d\u7136\u5f37\u5927\u300d\uff0c\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u5730\u6062\u5fa9\u529b\u91cf\u53ca\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

How should U.S. strategy toward China grapple with these changes? Given the dismal track record of the past several years, some may be tempted to try to undo these shifts by reassuring Beijing that the United States does not in fact intend to keep China down. This path is highly unlikely to succeed.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u82e5\u8981\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u6709\u6548\u7af6\u722d\uff0c\u683c\u7dad\u8332\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u91cd\u9ede\u5728\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u91cd\u632f\u570b\u5167\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u3001\u6280\u8853\u512a\u52e2\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u52d5\u4f5c\u5c07\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u64bc\u52d5\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u57fa\u790e\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u683c\u7dad\u8332\uff08Julian Gewirtz\uff09\u4e0a\u4efb\u524d\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u95dc\u4fc2\u5354\u6703\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u9ad8\u7d1a\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u3002\u4f5c\u7232\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u5718\u968a\u300d\u7684\u65b0\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u9019\u4f4d2018\u5e74\u624d\u8d70\u51fa\u6821\u9580\u7684\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u5c07\u6210\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u64cd\u76e4\u624b\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

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